The rise and fall of Indian equities... What lies ahead?

Chart 1: Factors which have negatively weighed on the market

Source: Bloomberg

Chronological information of the negative developments annotated in the above chart

Source: Various Media Reports, IIFL and JPM

Elaborate reasons for the market fall:

Global risk aversion:

• China: Chinese economy has slowed to the lowest levels in 25 years. There are fears pertaining to the possible hard landing in China, as reflected in the sharp drop in Chinese stock market. In line with the efforts to make the currency more flexible, the PBoC has depreciated the CNY 4% to 5%. The fear of hard landing and sharp devaluation of CNY has caused panic in the global market.
• Our take: The Chinese economy is rebalancing as it is becoming more inward looking rather than export dependent. In this adjustment process, they need a much better foreign exchange policy. They are making all the right efforts toward this but the worries related to sharp devaluation in CNY and/or hard landing in China may be overstated.
• Oil: The persistent weakness in oil prices continues to exert its negative influence on all markets, especially credit markets. It is also leading to short-term withdrawal of financial investments by oil producing Sovereign Wealth Funds.
• Our take: Prices have sharply fallen to $27 per barrel which is below the cash cost of a number of major producers. Thus, at these levels we begin to see significant production capacity going offline, which should then set the stage to stabilise the energy sector. Stable and rising energy markets should be positive for global risk environment. Also for India, lower crude is eventually beneficial than higher crude prices.
• Fed tightening: The US Central bank has eased their policy by 25 bps in December, reversing the 7 years of monetary support. Markets are worried about any sharp policy tightening by the Fed, which can put pressure on global cost of capital.
• Our take: While the US economy is doing well, the recent bout of risk aversion and deflation would mean that the Fed could postpone the incremental tightening as financial conditions have materially tightened in the US as well. Any delay in Fed tightening would be taken as positive surprise. Also, other Central banks like ECB, PBoC, BoJ could soften their policy stance as deflation fears have mounted.

Local concerns:

• Monsoon: India has had two back to back sub-par monsoons leading to rural slowdown.
• Our take: Outlook for monsoons in 2016 is positive as India has never seen 3 consecutive years of drought. Meanwhile, global forecasters such as the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology said there was a probability of La Nina developing in 2016. Historically, La Nina results in better than normal monsoon in India.
• Legislative logjam: Due to the ongoing conflict between the Centre and the opposition parties, there has been a severe legislative logjam. This has made the reform process tardy leading to disappointments.
• Politics (state elections defeat): After a dream run till 2014, BJP suffered two meaningful defeats in 2015 in Delhi and Bihar elections. This has impacted the positive sentiments as investors worry about the difficulty that the Government faces to push the reforms agenda forward.
• Our take: Government has shown resolve to continue with the reforms agenda despite legislative hurdles. Further, any normal functioning of the Parliament would be considered as positive surprise by the market. Also, in FY17, there are no critical state elections for the BJP, so they may use this slack period to improve upon the reformist agenda. The upcoming budget could be a platform to showcase the resolve.

Cleansing up of the system

• NP as of the banking system: Government/RBI has expedited the efforts to recognise bad assets for a long pending overhaul of the banking system.
• Curb on the parallel economy: There is a clear intent towards bringing more transparency in the system. This has affected the near term sentiment as well as growth momentum.
• Our take: While this is hurting growth in the near term, it is likely to considerably improve the quality of India's macroeconomic profile over the medium term. The share of organised sector shall improve. Once the system becomes lean and transparent, the eventual recovery is likely to be far more sustainable.

Chart 2: Factors which have been positive for the markets

Source: Bloomberg

Chronological information of the positive developments annotated in the above chart

Source: Various Media Reports, IIFL and JPM

What can go right over the next 24 months?

We all know what can go wrong. China, Oil, US Fed, risk aversion, Indian banks NPA problem, slow growth, etc. But it makes sense to at least think about the positives which can happen.

There are a number of reforms/developments which are already in place and it’s just a matter of time when they will start to come into play.

• Two key legislative bills (which could clear in coming sessions): Good and Services Tax (GST) and Bankruptcy Code. It is "when" rather than "whether"
• Dedicated Freight corridor (DFC) and Delhi Mumbai Industrial Corridor (DMIC)
• Skill India / Digital India / Start-up India: All these measures will push forward the Make in India policy
• Reduction in corporate tax rate from 30% to 25%
• Reduced interest rates
• Ease of doing business – Cutting down on red tape
• Curtailing the parallel money (Black Money): boosting the organized sector
• Full benefits of lower crude, leading to long-term competitiveness for Indian manufacturing sector, besides a strong country Balance Sheet with lower twin deficits
• Normal monsoon, leading to rural economy adding to GDP growth
• Visible impact of huge government spending in areas of railway, defence, roads, power, etc
• Cleansing of bank books, removing the overhang and uncertainty and allowing banks to focus again on core credit growth
• Expectations have toned down meaningfully and any uptick might lead to big surprises and reaction
• A possible development and growth focused Union budget on February 29th

There is a possibility that most of these factors will coincide together in a few quarters resulting into a virtuous cycle. None can deny that the intention from the government side is very strong. It's a matter of time that the "talk" gets converted into "walk".

Also, history suggests that a sharp fall in the market has proven to be a good opportunity for the long term investors, as subsequent returns have been quite favourable over the next 1 to 2 years. The below mentioned table substantiates this.

Table: 2 year return after every major fall in Sensex

* Price as of Jan 21st 2016 * All % changes are absolute and not compunded

Source: Bloomberg

Past performance may or may not sustain in the future.

More positives than negatives

Source: Bloomberg

To conclude, while there are multifold challenges, there are more than enough positives which will enable the growth to meaningfully recover in the coming quarters. In these volatile times, investors tend to look at glass half empty rather than half full. As stated above, positives outweigh the negatives and provide an excellent opportunity to increase allocation in equities from long term perspective. As legendary investors always say, "BUY when there is blood on the street".

"BE POSITIVE".

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